Breeding profile change for 3yo colts by iant
on
Thursday, April 01, 2010 at
8:51:07 AM
Irish 2000 Guineas Trial
race 4274.5914 Irish 2000 Guineas Trial-G3, 3yo M 8F Turf
I am at Leopardstown for the first classic trial of the European turf season. This is not a really important trial for several reasons the ground tends to be very testing and more importantly you do not want a top class horse on the go ready to race in March if it is going to last out the whole season. Obviously how sim racing works is very different that makes a lot of sense as what would players do if their star horses were only running for five months of the year.
The real race was won in fine style by a son of High Chaparral out of a Danehill mare that horse is likely to step up in trip in future. The placed horse’s pedigrees were Giant’s Causeway – Sadler’s Wells and Alhaarth – Marju. All of these sires and dam sires raced in Europe which for graded races in Europe is very much the norm in recent years.
The one horses breeding is not going to be obvious to many sim players so it is worth looking at the stud where both the sire and dam sire stand. Derrinstown Stud is the Irish stallion farm for Shadwell Stud or think Hamden Al Maktoum the best owner breeder of the Dubai Sheikhs. All the stallions at the stud have a lot to offer and are either graded producing sires and for the unproven sires graded horses on the track. All offer good value for money in the sim and should be able to sire top class horses if the sim has them valued correctly.
Alhaarth – this horse was a top class 2yo unbeaten and a champion. He did not train on into such a great horse but was placed several times at the top level. His stud life has been in and out between great highs in his classic winning son Haafhd already a graded producing sire himself and some barren years. He has a very good 3yo for 2010 that has classic prospect being an unbeaten grade 1 winner in Awzaan. Eight graded winners in the last ten years is reasonable given his first 2yo’s ran in 2001. He should be capable of getting a graded winner or so a year and several listed stakes runners. His offspring are versatile in terms of trip.
Bahri – is famous for two things Shakee and running under the trees at Ascot with Willie Carson to win the QE II mile one of the outstanding rides at the top level of the last 25 years. He was not helped by being sent to stud in America where he was not well supported. He has done ok since his return. His offspring tend to do well on off tracks as many can hit the ground hard due to their running action. He should be capable of getting a listed winner or two a crop with the odd graded horse every now and then.
Elnadim – was a high class sprint. He also suffered from being sent to stud in the US. He has done well in Ireland with limited crop sizes since his return. As would be expected from a sprinting son of Danzig his offspring are mostly about sped and many are good 2yo’s. Ten graded winners over the last ten years is a good return especially as some of those crops contained around 30 foals. He should be capable of getting a graded winner each year and several more stakes winner to boot. The vast majority should be sprinters with the occasional mile winner thrown do not expect many that stay well though.
Haatef – is probably the weakest stallion at the stud. He was a speedy horse but below top class. He is likely to be bred to speedy commercial mares. His offspring are likely to be 2yo types in the main and he will get winners with the odd good one every now and then. It is hard to see him becoming a top class sire in truth and based in Ireland is not really a sire that I could get excited about. If leased to Italy he would make an interesting regional sire for that kind of market.
Intikhab – this was a seriously good racehorse at his best. He was a horse who I liked and I have always liked his offspring in real life. Ina field of 20 maidens you can spot the one he sired straight away as he stamps his stock like himself. He has had decent success in real life with a couple of grade 1 winners include the prolific Red Evie. He should manage a graded winner a crop and a couple of stakes winners. His sim rating is very fair in truth and always has been. I myself have had some of his best runner including a grade 1 winner.
Marju – he has been a top class sire for a long time now though you would never guess so by his sim record. Twenty graded winners in the last ten years is top class. Gone West has had ten which shows where he should be rated. He gets sprinters to horse that do well at up to 10f these are rarer though. He should be a sire capable of getting around two graded winners per crop and another couple of stakes class horses. He really need a sim boost and is starting to do ok as a dam sire as well now.
Taymayuz – this horse was new for the sim in 2009. His results so far have been poor compared against race record and pedigree. This horse should be rated way superior to Big Brown. He was unbeaten as a 2yo and at three won at grade 1 level twice including the all important open age grade 1 win that the vast majority of the world’s best sires achieve. He was in the same stable as Goldikova and was considered her superior enough said. He ran in England once but had a bad flight over and did not show his form the fact he was fancied to beat Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator tells its own story. His second dam is a sister to Urban Sea grade 1 stallion King’s Best he is obviously another product of that exciting family and his dam being by Nureyev makes him a very interesting prospect especially for Galileo mares. He has been well supported at stud and it would be a major surprise if he was at least not the equal to Marju as a stallion if not better.
There is a small field for this race but the runners appear to be of a high class so this should be a decent race.
DUSSELDORF (GER) MONSUN (GER) x MONTJEU (IRE) x MR. PROSPECTOR
I think it is worth noting that Monsun is a massive source of stamina nine out of his ten best horses have won graded races at 10f+ only one has not won at over 10f. If we add to that Montjeu who is another source of stamina his offspring’s awd is 11.3f you do worry how this horse can be so good at 8f on paper this horse wants a minimum of 12f. That being said this horse does have a real turf pedigree which is really good to see. This horse was a very good 2yo but seems to have improved again as a 3yo. That should have been expected on breeding. Interestingly he did not like an off track which given his pedigree is a surprise. As long as the massive speed figure improvement was not down to beating up inferior horses last time he has to have a very good chance of following up in this race.
GPS TO FINISH LINE (KY) HENRYTHENAVIGATOR x GHOSTZAPPER x DANZIG
The first thing to say is this horse wins the prize for the best name. This horse’s sire is one in my opinion who could benefit from sim shuttling. It would be a major surprise if his Australian crops did not out perform his US crops. Simple facts are he need really firm going he had instant acceleration of a steady pace and his bloodlines suit the mare population on offer down under. The style of racing mares on offer and going (most of his offspring will make there way to Europe) is not so much to his liking in the northern hemisphere. There are several sires that would also fit the bill for shuttling to various parts of the world in the game. This horse has improved this year a lot. He likes the extra ground and is unbeaten. I have a gut feeling his best distance may well end up being 10f in time. That being said given his form and speed figures this year he has to hold very chance if he does not bounce after a good run of results.
SOUTHINKUCANRUN (IRE) SHAMARDAL x SEATTLE SLEW x SADLER'S WELLS
Shamardal is still the best offspring of his sire Giant’s Causeway. This is slightly worrying that up until now he has still not been able to sire a really top class horse maybe that will change in 2010. Shamardal has done very well at stud so far and appears to be a decent sire on the rise. He already has 7 black type winners and his first offspring now three seem to be improving with age as well. This horse has a nice progressive profile winning his last two and posting decent speed figures. The problem is those were at 9.5f this race is a mile. The evidence suggests he is a horse that wants 10f+ and may well be caught for toe in this class of race over this trip. I would be interested to see this horse run over further there is nothing to say he cannot win a race like the French Derby (Prix de Jockey Club). I have a feeling he will struggle in this race.
IFFEZHEIM (ENG) MANDURO (GER) x STREET CRY (IRE) x SADLER'S WELLS
Manduro was an ex champion racehorse. The problem he has as a potential stallion is that he did not really turn into a top class racehorse till the age of five. The other top class son of Monsun standing at a Darley stud Shirocco offers a much more likely source of top class horses based on race record. His yearling sales results suggest it could well be so. This horse has been well placed by connections so far. The evidence on hand suggests this mile is his best trip. The negative factors are his two stakes races are by far his worst performances and this is a step up in class again. It is hard to make a case for him winning this race on known form.
BLACK GOLDNINER (JPN) BLACK HAWK (GB) x FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW
Black hawk was bred at Watership Down Stud in England (yes that is where the book about rabbits is set). It is also owned by Sir Andrew Lloyd-Webber and his wife another of their homebred horses won in Dubai last week. The comments about this does not happen to people like us seemed rather pathetic I mean they are worth hundreds of millions of pounds if it does not happen to people like them, who does it happen to? Chavs on benefits. Anyway this sire has had a few listed stakes winner in Australia and one grade 3 winner that in truth was not even up to listed class in Australia. The owner therefore has managed a miracle winning a top sim race with this horse. This horses two runs since have not been to exciting and in truth the highlight of his life has already passed. He may be able to sneak a place.
DERHAMM (KY) STREET SENSE x GIANT'S CAUSEWAY x DANZIG
Street Sense is interesting as a sire. The obvious question to deal with first is will he be any good on turf the answer given the evidence is no. His record on all weather surfaces suggests he was an inferior horse on them so is likely not to do well as a turf sire. The second factor is can he buck the trend since Unbridled of Kentucky Derby winners being poor stallions all with active runners since have an AEI below 1. The answer there is he has a better chance than all those before him and after him. It will be interesting to see but at least his foals sold well. This horse was doing ok before his last start upped to graded company he was well beaten. He did though run a decant speed figure. A try on the dirt may have been of interest at this point rather than this race. I think there is more to come from this horse but at what rip and surface is the big question. He has place claims.
As for my selections:-
1 Dusseldorf, nice progressive profile 2 GPS To Finish Line, may bounce slightly off big run last time other wise excellent chance 3 Black Goldniner, look to bounce back to form
