Where are the bombs by iant
on
Friday, April 16, 2010 at
3:09:28 AM
The Green Ham Stakes
Race : The Green Ham Stakes - Grade III - $150,000 Track : Surrey (ENG) Restrictions : All horses, 3 years old Distance : Seven furlongs on the Turf Race: 4288.3413
We are at Newbury this week for a classic trail there are in fact two and a nice 4yo+ grade 3 race. The best race on the real card is the one mile maiden race. This has been run in and won by several top class horses in recent years. Top class American racehorse started off in the race as well as class ic winner Lucrano and in that same race Pipedreamer ran who was also grade 1 placed. Ikhtyar was another grade 1 runner to have run in for recent years, Makderah and Purple Moon also have grade 1 form.
It is my personal favourite meeting of the year. I should be able to make it down on Saturday and the weather forecast being nice it should be a good day’s racing. It will be interesting to see if Canford Cliffs can return to the form he showed at Royal Ascot last year. It looks like I have to take my daughter which will be interesting as she has not been racing before.
As for the sire show case this week we head to Whitsbury Manor Stud in Dorset which is not a million miles away from Newbury. The stallions tend to be commercial and there is a bias towards speed. Interestingly last weeks selection did well in real life Bertolini had a grade 1 and Lucky Story had a placed stakes runner as well to prove there worth.
Avonbridge - this was a very good racehorse. He was a grade 1 winner as was his half brother as well. His owner comes from Chepstow and people how know the area will realize the Avonbridge over the M5 motorway is not far away. I would actually put money on the fact you can see it from his stud farm. This horse was a first year sire in real life last year and has had one stakes winner so far. He is not going to be a massive success at stud but should continue to sire plenty of winners over sprint distances and should be able to get the odd stakes winner or two each year. The ones he does get will be sprinters.
Cadeaux Genereux – he is getting old now as a stallion. His fee is set to private for 2010 so he will service very few mares. He has been a good sire at stud. Fifteen graded wins in the last ten years tells it own story. Think of Gone West and his real life record of ten and we can see what a poor rating this horse has in the sim, mind Gone West’s rating as a sire is just unreal and cannot be justified in any shape of form. This horse is also doing ok as a dam sire and already has 13 graded winners in this role. This is where Gone West does make him look poor with 27 in the same period he is obviously far better in this role which can be said of many sires. CG is another source of speed best up to a mile and is a good outcross. He is likely to turn up in pedigrees for a long time to come if anything he will be better as a dam dam sire injecting speed onto classic pedigrees.
Compton Place – here is another very good sprinter a winner of the July Cup a race where most of the winners have done well at stud. He has a decent record as well with 9 graded stakes winners and he should be more than capable of siring a graded winner a year in the sim and have several stakes winner on top. He again is a source of speed his offspring are really tough and hold there form well over several season. The most interesting fact about this sire is that bred to Night Shift mares gives the most likeliest source of stake quality horses in the world. He himself has a great outcross pedigree which will be useful in years to come.
Refuse To Bend – he has not done very well at stud so far. Darley have in effect let him go and the results of his first crops show why. It is fair to say his sim rating needs a downgrade. He still looks capable of siring the odd stakes horse to be honest but in honesty over the long term it is hard to make out a case for him being any better than Avonbridge.
Sakhee’s Secret – it is hard to know what to make of him. He did win an open age grade 1 at three which is a positive in fact the July Cup. Overall he was not brilliant on the racecourse after this. He is also a hard sire to work out in terms of how he will produce will it be speed like him or will the offspring stay a little better. In truth it is hard to be to positive with him as his sire has not hit the highest as a sire and that can have a massive impact. In truth I would rate him somewhere between Avonbridge and Compton Place. He should therefore with a full crop be able to throw out a minor stakes winner or two a year.
POOCH BG (JPN) ROSES IN MAY x FORESTRY x MR. PROSPECTOR
The sire has not done as well as expected in Japan from his first runners. The dam sire is one of those horses that need a massive downgrade in the sim at least for turf ability he is far inferior to say Compton Place and needs a rating of about half that horse’s ability on turf. At present that is not the case. This horse has a very good record so far winning nine out of twelve starts. He won a graded race over 6 furlongs last time out. The horse has run once and won on and off track. If he does not bounce in this race has to have very good prospects of making the frame.
SOMEBEACHSOMEPLACE (JPN) FALBRAV (IRE) x GIANT'S CAUSEWAY x CAPOTE
Falbrav stood in England for a season or two. The results were very poor based on those results he could not be rated better than Avonbridge to be honest. He has had three graded winners in real life so cannot be expected to sire more than one graded winner per crop in reality. I get the feeling the sim over rates him. This horse was just beaten by Pooch in his last start so is up to the quality required for graded racing. He has won on his only off track start in stakes company which is another big positive as well. As long as his best form was not left behind as a 2yo he has to have decent prospects of making the frame.
STRADAVARIUS (IRE) GALILEO (IRE) x FORTY NINER x SECRETARIAT
Forty Niner as a dam sire is horribly over rated in the sim. He should be able to get about 4 as a maximum graded stakes runners per crop. I have to be honest and say even the elite of the worlds dam sires i.e. Sadler's Wells, Danehill and Mr. Prospector should struggle to get twelve per crop. It would be fair to say Forty Niner needs an ability drop at the top end in the region of 65%. If things are not done to several of these stallions Mike's aims of getting a more diverse horse population will not come to fruition. This horse has a decent record but each of his graded runs has seen him come up a little short. The other negative is that he has not run on an off track. It may also be the case he want a distance of ground now.
SPRING STORMS (KY) SPRING AT LAST x THUNDER GULCH x CARSON CITY
This horse has done most of his racing on dirt. His pedigree offers little hope he will be any good on turf. He fails miserably the quality test in that department. His sires own race record offers little hope he will be much of a stallion as well. His speed figures improved considerably when switched to dirt and it seems hard to believe he can win this race. He has won on an off track which is a positive factor and is a graded winner on dirt. On the evidence at hand other look far more likely winners of this race.
NICKEL SHOOTER (CAN) BOLD EXECUTIVE x SICYOS x OVERBURY (IRE)
This horse has a week pedigree in sim and real life terms. His sire is somewhat below the level of the sires at Whitsbury Manor. This horse has been running in graded races and in truth being well beaten in them. He has not run on an off track and would require those conditions to induce massive improvement to be involved at the business end of this race. He appears to be a big outsider in this field.
ALBERT'S MUFFY (PA) ALBERT THE GREAT x FORTY NINER x NODOUBLE
This horse’s sire has a very strange stud record. He has four grade 1 winners in real life but no other black type runners in open company. That would explain why he is no longer at stud in Kentucky. He would and should be rated in real terms at about 1/4 ability of Compton Place and is really no better than a 25 point sire. This horse obviously gets most of his ability from his massively over rated dam sire. This horse has one run on an off track and was well beaten. On the positive side he had a graded win at two and one a stakes race last start. Overall he only has an outside chance of making the frame.
BLOWOUT THECANDLES (KY) FORESTRY x A.P. INDY x AFFIRMED
This horse has both his sire and dam sire that are so grossly over rated on turf it causes major questions of the sire rating in the sim. The brutal fact is the only time you see the words A.P. on a turf race graded race in Europe they are followed by O'Brien. This horse should be a turf skid but is far better than that. He has not run on an off track which is not a positive factor. His form has not really improved since n early 2yo as well. He has been struggling and was only fourth behind a couple of others in this race last time. It is hard to find any real reason why he can reverse that form. He has only an outside chance of making the frame.
AUDIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x BE MY GUEST x DYNAFORMER
Well this horse would be odds on to win this on breeding. In fact so far on the horse in this race he is the only one you can actually believe the pedigree could appear in the breeding of a horse in this race. His sire has done very well at stud and should be one of the better sires in the sim. On the basis that only the cream of the sires in the world should sire over 5 graded runners per crop in the sim (I could make a case for six stallion) this stallion should be one of the better ones in the sim capable of getting around 4 per crop. The good news for this horse is that he has won on an off track. The bad news is that recently his graded race form falls a little short of that required. He has outside place claims based on the off track.
DON'T PLAY ME (KY) THEATRICAL (IRE) x SEATTLE SLEW x DANZIG
I cannot imagine Theatrical being able to sire a horse with the speed for a race like this in real life. His offspring tend to be one placed stayers in the main. In fact most of them if good enough to make it to stud end up as national hunt sires. Seattle Slew adds little confidence to the pedigree either for either trip or surface. This horse has been running well of late and based on speed figures has a good chance. He also has an off track wins as well. The negative is I am not sure this is going to be his best trip. The facts are still there and he has to have a decent shot of making the frame. I get the feeling this horse has more to offer.
WHATHAPPENSINVEGAS (AUS) ELUSIVE QUALITY x SPECIAL WEEK x PRIVATE ACCOUNT
I am not sure why this horse is bred in Australia but he is. His sire has a decent record in Europe and is only one of a handful of sires who merits a lot of interest from European breeders to be honest with you. His offspring tend to be best at up to a mile and it would be no surprise for him to have runners in this race. In fact he has had runners on the classic trail in the last two seasons. This horse has showed improved form for a switch to turf. The negative is he is being race hard for an early season 3yo this is his second run in April already. He has no off track form to gauge whether he will handle conditions. On the balance of recent runs he may struggle to make the frame.
INDURATE (KY) HARD SPUN x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT
This horse has a poor pedigree for a turf horse in truth. His sire offers little hope if we consider a far better qualified son of Danzig in War Chant and his overall record at stud. His dam sire blatantly needs a massive downgrade as he should in truth should struggle to get one runner in a race like this as a dam sire let alone three he is not Danehill. This horse has been running well and seems to run on either surface well. He is a graded winner on turf and has a win on the off track which is another massive boost given the track conditions. On the balance you have to consider his chances of making the frame in this race to be good.
As for my selections:-
1 Somebeachsomepalce on the upgrade has to reverse form to win 2 Indurate good horses with a touch of class should go well 3 Pooch Bg good horses should run well
