The 11th running of the mile and a half Sydney Derby is upon us. Weather is looking fantastic so the turf should be firm. Although the race is going for the 11th time, this is only the second time it is being held in Victoria. Race officials were able to pull this race away from the New South Wales track last year by promising to increase the purse from $1 million to $1.6 million. The record for the Derby is set at 2:29.4 seconds which was equaled last year in it’s first run here in Victoria. Are we looking at a new record this year? Could be, last years winner, Crusading Enforcer hit a speed of 107 for the first time in matching the Derby time record. Every horse in this race looks to be adding distance, some more than others. Looking at the field, we’ll see who has the best shot at breaking the track record
1. Monumental Moment 12-1
Non-Graded Race Record: no starts
Graded Race Record: 3 starts 0-1-0
Monumental had a disappointing run in the Techranger’s Irish Memory (g1) where he finished eighth showing little effort and a speed of 88 for 9.5f. He did put in a nice second in the Digging the Grave Handicap (g1) staying close most of the 6f race. He is shipping a considerable race from Canada to down under. Distance will take a toll.
2. Gimlet Chilled 5-1
Non-Graded Race Record: no starts
Graded Race Record: 1 start 1-0-0
Gimlet proved to be a powerhouse in his only graded race last time out, the Manatee Classic (g3) where he rolled smoothly to the front and galloped off to a 2 stride victory in the 10f race with a career best speed of 104. He’s been on the board in each of his lifetime starts going 4-2-2 in 8 races. Jockey Dowell (17% win) should provide a good ride and this horse should be respected.
3. Wolfman has Nards 9-2
Non-Graded Race Record: 1 start 1-0-0
Graded Race Record: 1 start 0-0-0
Wolman has Nards is an extremely slow starter, and will be watching a good part of the race from the rear. He does have some fire within him which he showed impressively in February, winning an allowance race in 101 rallying from 14 down at the half to win by a fraction of a length going 9f. He followed this with a 7th in his only grade start The Palms (g3) with a speed of 91 just now closing as well as the February start. Last time out he beat a short field of 5 in the Canasha (9.5f) in a speed of 101. Wolfman should be closing well. He ships from Kentucky, but has traveled to Germany before with good results, thus travel shouldn’t have too much of an effect. He will loom around dangerously.
4. Collect the Bones 19-1
Non-Graded Race Record: no starts
Graded Race Record: no starts
This is the first stakes start of any kind for Collect the Bones who just broke his maiden on his 11th attempt. He won a maiden special weight going 11f and a speed of 92 (lifetime best) catching the leader in the final strides. Collect the Bones kept coming up short in his races and moving him to 11f seemed to be a wise move which allowed him more time to get to the front end. I belief he will continue to improve however, he is making a long trip from Canada down to Victoria and that may have an effect on his performance. In any event, I’d like to give him a few more races to support the longer racing distance is his forte.
5. Buda Rocks 5-1
Non-Graded Race Record: 1 start 1-0-0
Graded Race Record: 5 starts 0-1-2
Buda Rocks comes off a career best speed rating of 100 finishing third in the Manatee Special behind Gimlet Chilled who is also in this race. Buda had the top jockey for that race, as well as the race before that, the Super Hero Role Playing Stakes (g3) at 10.5f where he ran flat throughout the race. Buda tends to get the attention of the top jocks in most of his races and has 2 wins in 9 starts. He once again grabs the best getting Evans (24% win). He loves the grass (8 of 9 on board) and is experienced in graded events. May not be the best in the field but should be considered for exotic wagers.
6. Burnt Lawn 12-1
Non-Graded Race Record: 3 starts 2-0-1
Graded Race Record: 3 starts 0-1-1
Burnt Lawn seems like an appropriate name for this horse. He’s a slow starter, but sure knows how to burn up the grass turf as he fires home late in the race. Last November, he finished 4th in the Saint Cloud (g1) where he closed strong making up 9 strides in the final call of the 10f race (his longest run). His top speed is a 94 which was on a good turf track in the G1 The Futurity in a mile race. He has a very powerful late kick that doesn’t turn on until the last quarter of the race. Jockey Cox (20% win) will need to find that switch a bit earlier as this horse will need to boost the speed number a bit to be the spoiler in this event.
7. Eight One Five 12-1
Non-Graded Race Record: no starts
Graded Race Record: 6 starts 0-1-0
Eight One Five has quite a bit of early speed and has fared well at the allowance level over the winter. As the record above reflects, he has struggled in graded racing, hitting the board once in 6 tries. His top speed is a 93 which was just over a month ago running 6.5 furlongs in a g3 race where he ran behind the leader and drifted back to a fifth place finish. He’s a bit scary to back as his recent races have been around 6.5f and he’s doubling up the distance in this race.
8. Deathlok 23-1
Non-Graded Race Record: no starts
Graded Race Record: no starts
Deathlok has shown the ability to set the early pace in his 5 career starts and I would not be surprised to see him out on the lead early in this race. A long shot in the race and that seems to be justified as he takes a huge jump to graded race, and his top speed is an 89 on an off track, and he is being transported from New Jersey to Victoria. All these are factors working against him and his best hope is to run away from the field early on and I’m not sold that will work.
9. Can’t Slow Down 13-1
Non-Graded Race Record: 1 start 0-1-0
Graded Race Record: no starts
Since December, Can’t Slow Down has been going longer distances with each start and his speeds have also been increasing. His last outing was his sole stakes race, making a nice move to move up and was clearly the second best in the race with a 94 speed rating and running 10 furlongs. The distance shouldn’t be a problem for him and he may even have another speed rating increase. I can see him finishing in the top 5.
10. Si Tu Sabes 6-1
Non-Graded Race Record: 1 start 0-0-1
Graded Race Record: 2 starts 0-0-1
Si Tu Sabes is capable of running speeds over 100 as he hit this number back in February in an allowance race finishing second by a head. That race was on the dirt. His last race was a 3rd in a non-graded stakes where he set his career best turf speed of 95 going 9f. Si Tu Sabes will be running in the middle of the field. He does not have a strong late kick but does have a nice smooth ‘n steady gradual close. He may be a bit underrated and is worth watching but do consider that he travels from the Kentucky area for this event.
11. Classic Return 7-1
Non-Graded Race Record: 3 start 2-1-0
Graded Race Record: 4 starts 0-0-1
This horse will be looking for a seat near the rear of the field in the early going. While Classic Return may lack early speed he does make it up with his thunderous late maneuver capability. In February, he roared to the front after trailing by a dozen strides in the Storming Sal establishing a lifetime best of 99 in the mile race. He’s done well in the non-graded race circuit and just keeps coming up short in the graded level. He has also shown that he can travel distances without showing much wear. Jockey Bailey (7% win) may not be the hottest one at the track, but he did ride the winner last year.
12. Spinney 7-1
Non-Graded Race Record: no starts
Graded Race Record: no starts
Spinney is making his first stake race appearance and looks like a good fit. He’s been on the board in each of his 9 turf starts with 3 wins. His last race was a beautiful win in an allowance race at 10f, recording a speed of 102, a significant increase from his prior best speed of 91. He will be running near the front and can handle the distance. The only set back is the jockey draw, Aggulotto, who has one win in 23 starts and on the board only 4 times.
Trackman Picks: 3-5-2-10
Yoss Picks: 2-5-3-12
My Picks: 2-3-5-12
