I lost my keys by iant
on
Thursday, May 13, 2010 at
5:29:31 AM
The Locksmith-G1
race 4316.3414 E2, The Locksmith-G1, 4yo+ M 8F Turf
We travel to Newbury for the first grade 1 race in England for older horses in 2010. This is usually a good race and has had a very good cast of winners over the years. Including some of the best sires anywhere in the world and who should be some of the top horses in the game.
Habitat won this race and he was until just recently the leading dam sire of graded stakes winners under the European pattern race system. This was no mean feet and if he had had the book sizes of Sadler’s Wells I doubt he would be overhauled. He is effectively now really just a dam dam sire but is a good option and should be available at the end of the week. He if rated correctly should be in the top 10 in the game in this role.
Kris was an outstanding race horse never coming outside of the first two more importantly he was a champion sire and champion broodmare sire. He still is a top class broodmare sire. If we take 2009 he was one of only 9 sires in the world to have over 3 grade 1 winners as a broodmare sire. If we consider one achieved that on runners from Argentina (poor form) and two are dual hemisphere sire that shows how good he really is. He should be within the top 30-40 dam sires in the game. He obviously needs an upgrade at the expense of now washed out dam sires think Northern Dancer, Nijinsky as two examples.
Polar Falcon he was not the best sire ever but has left a legacy as a sire of sires his stand out being son Pivotal now one of the world’s elite sires. Another son Passing Glance is interesting he has sired few runners all from horrible mares almost every horse that has run has been better than the dam in terms of racecourse ability. To put things in perspective the Timeform average rating of his offspring in England is the same as Street Cry. You can just imagine how he could do with the mares that sire has been afforded. A half sister to Polar Flacon is the dam of first year sire and classic winner Le Havre.
Selkirk was a champion miler twice! He has been a very good sire as well around 10% stakes winners to runners in real life. There are not many stallions that can boast that record. He is also starting to do well as a dam sire. Of more importance is that being from the Sharpen Up line he blends really well with Danzig line stallions. He has had 47 graded winners over the last ten years and is massively under rated in the sim say compared to Gone west who has only had 27 in the same period. He needs a substantial boost to his rating across the board. It would be fair to say he is one of the worst represented sires in ability terms in the sim.
Cape Cross has been doing well as a sire obviously he has had two stand outs Sea The Stars and Ouija Board who’s dam sire won this race twice in the 1960’s. He has had 56 graded winners over the last 10 years and it is fair to say he deserved the boost Mike gave him at the start of the year. His sim rating for a long time has been very poor. He has though to be fair had lots of runners also so in percentage terms his results are not as good as Selkirk’s. he is still a top class stallion though.
Medicean started off very well at stud but has slowed down over the last couple of seasons. He has had grade 1 success this year and his better crops are hitting the track now. He has been well supported especially by Shadwell and in the long term should do reasonably well as a dam sire. 16 graded winners so far tells its own story which is not bad for a horse with 5 crops racing.
The last two winners of this race are both first season sires. Creachadoir in France he was fragile but a good horse. He will get the odd stakes winner but I would not expect anything exciting from him. Virtual is at a decent stud the same one as Medicean Cheveley Park. He will be well supported in terms of numbers and comes from a very good family. He will sire winners and get a few stakes winner to boot.
STORMIN BLUES (KY) BERNARDINI x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER
This horse on breeding is a failure as a top class turf horse prospect. Hi sire ahs no had any runners in Europe yet and has only one entered up in any future races as well. This is a decent horse and I covered plenty of his races last year. He finally broke his grade 1 duck and then was put in a soft race when likely to bounce which he did. That was a smart move by connections. He should now be back in top form with his ability to run very high speeds and proven class he has a very good chance in this race.
OLD TOWN (KY) SPEIGHTSTOWN x KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW
Interestingly this horse’s sire has a runner in the real version of this race. That being said it is his best horse in Europe by a mile and most are very poor struggling to break their maidens. He is massively over rated in the sim compared with real life it is fair to say that his current 3yo’s do not seem so good as earlier crops which suggests he is not as good but that needed to happen. This horse is capable of running decent speed figures. Those have been in much weaker races than this though and he has not been winning all of them. The step up in class may well be a problem for him. If he runs to his best form though he can sneak a place.
WONDERFUL HAACK (KY) SPEIGHTSTOWN x SADLER'S WELLS x DR. FAGER
The second horse by his sire in this race. He was never likely to be one of the best turf sires around and has from what I can see had one decent horse in Europe so far and his three year olds look pretty pathetic to be honest. No wins in 2010. Sadler’s Wells is a massive boost to the breeding though. This fellow improved greatly recently winning four in a row. He was then unplaced in a graded race. That may have well been a bounce race after four very good runs. In my opinion he has a better chance than the other horse by the sire and could well run into a place in this field.
FAMOUS HAACK (KY) RAHY x NUREYEV x RIVERMAN
This horse is very much a good example to show the decline in North American based thoroughbreds over the world in terms of influence. All the horse in this pedigree raced In Europe and two started out at stud there before being sold to America. This does not happen now even a horse like Rahy would more than likely return to Europe now for stud duties. This horse’s record is good he can run fast speed figures as well. He has never been out of the first three in his life so has class as well. The only unkown here is weather he can handle graded races my gut instinct is yes and if that is proven correct he can be a major player in this race. He looks likely to do very well over the coming year.
PICK AND CHOSE (AUS) REDOUTE'S CHOICE (AUS) x SEEKING THE GOLD x A.P. INDY
This horse’s sire has done really well in Australia. The interest fact is his best horse in terms of rating was the horse who won in Dubai this year as a 4yo running against 3yo’s. This probably reflects the fact that Australian racing outside of sprinting where it is the best is several pounds short of top class. The back end of the pedigree offers not a lot of appeal for turf racing or more importantly racing without drugs something that happens in this race. This horse again is capable of monster speed figures and seems to really like this trip. His form probably does not read as well as it should due to a few runs over 9f. He seemed to have a dip in form in the early part of the year and may well be now on the up again. Assuming the improved form was not done to the drop in class is more than capable of winning this race on a going day.
ROCK VEGAS (IRE) GALILEO (IRE) x GONE WEST x BLUSHING GROOM (FR)
Galileo is one of the worlds leading sires and ahs an excellent record at stud. It will be interesting watching his 2yo’s later in 2010 as these will be the first in real life on the back of his first runners in real life. They are the results of his best mares. If Dansili’s 3yo’s are anything to go by he is in line for an excellent 2011. This is a good horse as well. There is one concern from my point of view he was very good as a 3yo this time last year. In many cases horses that excel then do not make the same improvement in the sim as many others. There is some evidence to support that even though he is running big speed figures. He is capable of being a factor here but from a punters view point it may well be better to watch and keep your money in your pocket.
DOTH'RAKI (KY) JOHANNESBURG x DANZIG x MR. PROSPECTOR
Johannesburg has now been sold to Japan. This has to be seen as a negative move. If Coolmore sell a sire that means it is not up to scratch. His result should be expected to decline and in the sim I would also expect the same sort of thing to happen. Saying that he has had 20 graded winners in real life at stud so far which is not to bad. This horse won this race last year he now is a 5yo. He won graded races at two, three and four. As might be expected it appears his form is starting to fall off a little but not to a massive extent. The gut feeling I have though is that even though he should run well there will be a few to good for him at the business end of the race.
EVERYONES WATCHING (KY) NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x SUMMER SQUALL x SUNDAY SILENCE
As expected North Light has been a total wash out at stud and needs to be re rated as a skid. His stud fee is stupid in real life. It is $15k with an average world wide of just over $22k for yearling sales in 2009. His star will fall further anyone who sends hi a mare this year is likely to lose serious money when these products sell. A stud fee of $1.5k would make a lot more sense. This is the problem when looking at stud fees as a method of accessing stallions. This horse ahs been running well of late he won a stakes race and has improving speed figures. He is unproven in the class of race and even though improving he looks somewhat short of the class required to be a major issue in what looks like a good field.
BUDA STORM (KY) RAHY x DANZIG x STORM CAT
The second horse by Rahy in the field he was downgraded in the sim but is still rated to high. If you think he has had 23 graded winners over the last ten years. Compare his record to Selkirk and Cape Cross in the sim who have double the number of graded horses in real life and you do scratch your head. They are both obviously massively underrated in the sim at the expense of horses like Rahy. This horse ahs run at all sorts of trip on the evidence his best seems to be 9f. I do not think he is getting any better though which may well be part of the problem he has. I think in allowance ungraded stakes races this horse would run close to top three ever start against graded company he appears to be a bit short at open level. It is therefore hard to make a case out for him in this race.
LOWLANDER (GB) FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND (GB) x SEEKING THE GOLD x KRIS (GB)
Footstepsinthesand has not done to well at stud so far. I think this is no surprise as he was a vey fragile horse. This tends to be a negative at stud though there are always horses that prove the theory wrong but in general fragile horse are not the best sires. It would be no surprise for Coolmore to dump him very soon. This horse has won his last three races in decent speed figures. This is an obvious race to try. He has to bridge the gulf in class and as a 6yo with 42 races on the clock it would seem that is not something that is likely to happen. The positive factor though is his sire who if he follows his dad in the sim many of his horses will improve with age. That being said I still feel he has to find more to be a factor in this race.
As for my selections:-
Stormin Blues - class horse should go well Famous Haack – appears to be doing the right things Wonderful Haack – another with a decent chance
