I, for one, am quite surprised by the number of entrants that signed up for the Italian Derby. Actually, my surprise is more at the lack of entries for this mile and a half G1 event for 3 year olds. Last year, there were 13 runners and this year trainers have shunned the event with only 6 desiring to compete for the $500k up for grabs. In any case, we have six that will give it their all and here’s a look at each of them:
1. Shapeshifting 2-1
Shapeshifting has four starts to date and stretched out to 11 furlongs last time in an allowance race. He finished 3rd, some 9 lengths back as the beaten 7-5 favorite. He ran pretty flat in that race and has one stakes race under his belt where he also finished up the track a distance. Both races were speeds just below 90, however, his two maiden races were above 90 and he will need to show that form again to be the victor.
2. Corey’s Coffee 12-1
Corey broke his maiden last time out at 11 furlongs winning by 3 with a speed of 85. He has good late speed and stretching out the distance paid off for him last time. He adds a furlong for this race which shouldn’t hurt and has some decent pedigree behind him for running routes. His speeds are a bit lower than others, but have been improving. Of all the longshots in the race, he’s got the best chance to pull the upset.
3. Sharmadane 3-2
Sharmadane blew a 5 length lead in the G3 Goodyear Stakes (9f) as he tried to wire the field and settled for second with a speed of 101. I expect that he will try to run off with the lead again and will find some pressure from Fantasteek who also likes to be on the lead. He adds 3 flanks for this race and his best chance seems to be if he settles back just off the pace. He tends to tire when he’s on the lead, but the 101 speed is hard to ignore as it is much the best in this field.
4. Fantasteek 2-1
Fantasteek looks to be one of two entrants (Sharmadane being the other) who may be looking to set the pace. He tried to wire the field in the 10f Cephas Stakes and finished 2nd at 7-2, the longshot in a 4 horse field. He did record a career best speed of 96 and it was run over this track which may work towards his advantage. Fantasteek will need to find a way to make the speed last the distance.
5. Swede Child O’Mine 18-1
Swede is 3-2-0 in 5 career starts, which looks impressive. Taking a closer look, the record was amassed against well placed short fields of horses. Swede is adding a good 3 furlongs, give or take, to his longest race distance and his best speed to date is an 80. Although this field is small, it is the largest he has faced, so he has find yet another small field to compete in, but I think the extra distance will work against him and his speed number just aren’t as competitive with others in this race.
6. Divine Minister 14-1
Divine Minister looks to be in a tough spot in this race. He has one win in 9 starts and has only been on the board twice. His career best speed is an 81, which is several knocks below the rest of the field. Divine has never gone more than a mile and the extra distance does not look like it will be beneficial to him.
MY PICKS:
I'm going on a limb and taking the 12-1 Corey's Coffee as my top pick. He's shown improvement and I think the distance fits nicely with him. His speeds aren't top notch, but he may be able to run down the early speed.
Sharmadane has shown nice speed numbers and it's just a matter of making his speed last. He is fully capable of handling this field and gets top rated jockey aboard as a plus.
Fantasteek is the best of the rest and can't be ruled out. If he can find a way to lay off the early pace, or relax a bit if he can manage to get the lead, he could take this race.
