Danzig gransons MIA by iant
on
Thursday, July 08, 2010 at
4:57:27 AM
The Cup Of July-G1,
race 4372.4913 E5, The Cup Of July-G1, 3yo+ M 6F Turf
We travel to the July course at Newmarket for the premier sprint race run in Europe each year. The July Cup. The winner of this race is usually a top class horse with many going on to make their mark as top class sires. The race in recent years has been include in the Global Sprint Challenge.
The race has been dominated by one sire line since the mid 1980’s that being Danzig. It is fair to say the Danzig sire line has been given a bum rap in the sim. This is because it does not do so well in America even though outside of the USA his sons and grandsons are the most numerical and successful stallions on the plant.
If we go back to 1986 we can start looking at some of the better winners in terms of stallion status.
Green Desert he is now very old as can be guessed by the fact he won this in 1986. He has been a solid stallion at stud helped by the backing of the excellent Shadwell broodmare band. He has sired numerous grade 1 winners over the years and in recent times has been a leading sire of sires. Oasis Dream, Invincible Spirit, Cape Cross and Volksraad amongst some of his top class sire sons. He should continue to do well as a broodmare sire for many years to come.
Soviet Star although never an outstanding sire is a vary tough durable sire who always comes up with a few good horses per crop. Starcraft, Soviet Line and Starbourgh being three of his better offspring. He has a half decent sim rating which is very much in line with what should be expected. He is underused and makes a good value investment especially with the current breeding incentive offered by Mike.
Cadeaux Genereux I did a piece on the sires from his stud early in the year and all the comment made then are still relevant. He offers good value for money and is an outcross sire as well. He does deserve a better sim rating but could be used with a little though on the incentive scheme to breed an interesting prospect for not that many breeding points.
Royal Academy now in Australia and I am guessing likely to be retired this year. He is a decent sire with a good record wherever he has stood at stud. That is reflected in the sim as well. He himself offers good value for money and is usually available at the end of the week. He has also built up a decent record as a dam sire. He of course is best remembered for Lester Piggott fresh out of prison winning the Breeders Cup mile.
Anabba who died last year was a good racehorse. He was a wobbler and given away to his trainer as a stud tease. The problem was sorted and he went on to be a grade 1 winner and grade 1 producing sire. He built up a decent record at stud and in 2010 is one of the leading sires of graded runners. He had a decent sim rating as well which I expect to carry on as a dam sire.
Compton Place is another grade 1 producing sire and stands a t the same stud as Cadeaux Genereux. I covered him earlier in the year and all comments then are still relevant now. He is a decent source of speed and sires tough hardy runners.
Elnadim was another sire who was covered in a previous article. The comments about him are still relevant. He continues to sire decent horse and does well with limited chances. He should be capable of siring a couple of graded winners per crop.
Stravinsky now in Japan had a very good first year at stud. He set a record with number of winners and looked useful. He never built on that and is now in Japan. He really should have been at stud in Ireland where I am sure he would have done better. Coolmore do make some strange decisions at times.
Mozart was the best son of his sire Danehill in terms of ratings. He went to stud and only had one crop. That crop did well and he looks like a loss to the breeding industry. He has one son in the game that’s first foals sold very well Amadeus Woolf. His yearlings should do well as well at the sales this year. It would be no surprise to see him get an upgrade in a few years time, he is a sire to keep an eye out for.
Oasis Dream he was a top class race horse grade 1 winner at two and three including in open age company. His sim rating as a new sire was horrible for no reason especially considering the rating given to the inferior Empire Maker at the same stud. He has since proven himself to be a top class sire and if he is not already will have to be rated one of the best 3 sires in the game come 2011. He is the leading sire of graded winners in 2010 and is one of only a handful of sire to have had 15 horses placed in graded races worldwide in 2010. He also has the least runners out of all those stallions as well.
Pastroral Pursuits although not top class sire has sired stakes winners. His first runners are three years of age this season. He is a sire that the regional racing has done nothing to help at the expense at sires who are far worse than him. Think anything for Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and 47 states of the US. He is a source of speed and his full brother was a grade 1 winner as well.
If we look at the runners declared in the real race we can see a trnd which is not reflected in the sim. Their sires are Xaar, Acclamation, Mujadil, Yankee Victor, Marchand De Sabre, Bianconi, Bertolini, Choisir, Rock Of Gibraltar *2, Flying Spur, Invincible Spirit, Mtoto and Oasis Dream. It can be seen that 8 of the 14 are from the Danzig sire line and 2 others have dam sires from that line one in bred. Therefore 9 of the 14 are related to this sire. In sprint racing and turf racing in general in the sim this male line is poorly represented and needs a big boost. Only one horse is US bred and his sire is now in Korea. Two are Australian bred, one French and the others English or Irish bred horses. The sim does not reflect the ability of these sires fairly and it is still obvious for turf racing US based sires need a massive down grade in ability. Especially the dirt lines that have no influence on global racing think A P Indy and Awesome Again as prime examples. Many of the sires listed above would really struggle to sire a stakes winner in the sim let alone a grade 1 winner.
As for the dam sires they are as follows Last Tycoon, Ela-Mana-Mou, Indian Ridge, Woodman, Kendor, Scenic, Superlative, Made Of Gold, Mr Prospector, Rahy, Distant Relative, Cape Cross, Zafonic and Key Of Luck of those sires only two did not race in Europe again showing the importance of being a turf horse to sire a top turf horse. The statistics are very hard to ignore and if you check them against 90% of top turf horse races worldwide stand up. As with the sires many of these horse have very poor sim ratings as well.
ALTYR (ENG) CACIQUE (IRE) x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR
This horse should not exist. His sire was a jaffa and only had one crop of foals now 2yo’s in training. He was a not to bad race horse grade 2 level animal who bled and then when transferred to the US did well in poor races. His sim rating was way too high for a horse that was basically there to service Dansili rejects. He is at least from the Danzig sire line mind his dam sire offers no real hope that he will be any good in real life. Saying that he was the dam sire of a grade 3 turf winner in India this year which in human terms is the same as coming second in an over 90’s limbo dancing competition. This horse reverts back to sprinting today, I am not sure this is an obvious race to change tact in as there are some excellent horses in this field. His record at sprint trips is good but he has never been tested at this level. In truth he is one I would not consider backing in this race dues to the high caliber of other runners.
MONTE'S POSSE (KY) POSSE x EL PRADO(IRE) x ROBERTO
His sire is now in New York so offers value for state bred horses. In truth though he has been a failure and should have been downgraded considerably this year due to the move. His first crop did well with three graded winners since then he has had one. All have been on dirt so therefore for turf racing has to be considered a skid sire, obviously the surface split and ability of sires need adjusting in the sim. There is evidence with 3y0’s and now 2yo’s this is been addressed to some degree which is good and deserves credit. The back end has a turf influence but suggest stamina to be honest. This horse is improving and has a decent record and is more than capable of holding his own in stakes races. Is he good enough for a high class grade 1 sprint the answer will be found in this race. My gut instinct given the quality of horses in this race is he will come up short.
AGAIN CHESTER (KY) AWESOME AGAIN (CAN) x CHESTER HOUSE x NORTHERN DANCER (CAN)
This horse sires sim rating still does have me wondering how. He has never had a horse win on turf above grade 3 level only three in lifetime none of which has come outside of North America. This year he has managed only 2 graded winners both in weak fields in grade 3 races. He is a sire that needs a sim rating reduction of around 80% to get him where he should be compared to his sim superstar status. This horse’s pedigree also suggests that sprinting is not for him either but sprint he does. He has run well and sort of bounced last time after two good runs. He likes the trip and has graded wins recently which is an added bonus. He is one of several top class horses in this race. My gut instinct is he will not win but has very good place prospects in what looks a hot race on paper.
TEFERI'S RUN (KY) KINGMAMBO x SEPTIEME CIEL x POLISH NUMBERS
This horse’s dam sire has been in England actually about 40 miles from where I am now as a national hunt sire for several years now. In that time he should have been a total skid he has hardly sired any flat runners and all have been useless yes he does better than many sires of far better ability basically on the back of being US based and having a reasonable record 10 or more years ago. This horse has run well recently and has been graded placed. His last two starts have been poor though in terms of speed ratings and form. My gut instinct is that this race again is going to be to hot for him. He is more than capable of winning stakes races but appears to be a bit short of the class of some of the real heavy weight horses in this field.
SONG OF AWE (KY) UNBRIDLED'S SONG x GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x AWESOME AGAIN (CAN)
Here we go another horse that has no right to be in a turf sprint. He is skid material for this type of race on pedigree. His only turf runner with graded form in 2010 has a rating of 90 which is 2olbs below making the international classifications. In real terms that level of ability would win a class 4 handicap at best in Europe which is 5 levels below the graded status it has in the USA. There are obviously serious indications that a rating classification board would be of great use to US racing. The fact the number of graded races ahs doubled since 1980 supports this as I am sure the quality of horses is not double it was then if anything it is worse. This horse has been winning ungraded races for fun and deserves a shot a graded level now. Mind this is a really tough ask so he really is having his metal tested here. He could well run into a place. If he does not do well the trainer should not write him off at this level straight away as there are easier races and I am sure he is up to winning one.
TATSU (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR
This horse sire is dire and has been downgraded in the sim and will need another downgraded next year. Comments by his owner on American racing do not bode well for California he has cut of the Oak Tree meeting after this year and it would appear he is looking to close Santa Anita down as well. I believe Hollywood Park closes in 2012 which if they both close kills racing off their which is not a good thing at all. I can see him moving back to Canada for racing with the massive breeding and purse incentives up there and can also see this sire standing there may be as early as 2012. This though is an outstanding horse even though breeding suggest otherwise on turf. There is one thing having an outstanding horse but another to place and manage its carrier to maximize that ability. This horse’s trainer has done just that. He is on the right part of the cycle to run a very big race here and on all known form and ability will be very hard to beat.
GRANGE (AUS) ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x EL PRADO (IRE) x RAHY
This is the horse I want to win the race. The simple reason is he is the only horse on pedigree I can see running in a top class turf sprint. His sire has had 4 graded winners in 2010 including two grade 1 winners including the best sprinter in the world Sacred Kingdom. It is great to see an Australian bred horse in a top class sprint given their record over the last decade in real life. As for this horse chances here well he is on the upgraded which is good news. He won at graded level last time so has the class he has to have place chances but to be honest at present looks a little short of Tatsu but he may well improve past him later in the year.
FURIOSO (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x WOODMAN x ELA-MANA-MOU (IRE)
He is yet another horse by this sire in this race. It is really hard to work out given the evidence at hand how this horse could do so well on turf. There is a stack of evidence and it all says he will be useless and guess what he is and on dirt as well. That is probably down to the fact he had poor credentials there as well no open age graded wins at three at grade 1 level or 2yo grade 1 wins and only took off after a major breathing operation. Dud on paper dud in reality. He has only one graded stakes winner and that looked a fluke and things are not likely to get any better. This horse has run a lot on off tracks lately but has won his last two on firm. It looks as though his ability level is somewhat below the starts in this race. He will have to run a life time best to make the frame here.
HIGHSIDE (IRE) HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x IRISH RIVER (FR) x KINGMAMBO
This horse sire has done ok at stud so far. He has had 14 graded winners. His record in Australia is far better than the Northern Hemisphere. It would be no surprise to see him like Scenic sire of one of the runners in the real race spend his time in Australia all the time. The cost of shuttling is making it uneconomic in many cases. This horse again has not been bred to be a sprinter. He is though a decent animal capable of posting big speed and is proven graded class. The gut instinct is he is on a bit of a downward from trend at present after two very good runs. He is more than capable of making the frame but winning may just be beyond him.
URKO'S KING (IRE) SADLER'S WELLS x KINGMAMBO x ROBERTO
In the last seven years Sadler’s Wells has sired 58 graded stake winners only one has been at less than 7 furlongs. That was in a fillies only grade 3 race. The chances therefore of him siring a grade 1 caliber sprinter are as close to zero as you would like. He is an outstanding sire and dam sire and under rated by the sim which hopefully is being sorted out. This though is a very good horse indeed. He is top class and well managed by his owner. He has an excellent record in graded races and keeps his form well. He has to have an excellent chance of making the frame again here given his ability and reliability.
As For my selections:-
1 Tatsu class horse well trained 2 Grange on the upgrade has breeding for the job 3 Urko’s King another class act
