House of Orange-Nassau. by iant
on
Thursday, July 29, 2010 at
6:05:11 AM
The Friendly Wager - Grade I
Race : The Friendly Wager - Grade I - $500,000 Track : Newmarket (ENG) Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up Distance : A mile and one quarter on the Turf
This is the sim version of the Nassau Stakes to be run as part of Glorious Goodwood this week in real life. Goodwood is set on an estate owned by the Duke of Richmond it also has a motor racing circuit and is famous for flying aero planes as well. It is set in some wonderful countryside and is one of the best courses in terms of views in the world. It is though rather pompous at times which can be off putting.
The course itself is undulating and for the most part downhill. It therefore requires a horse with a good sense of balance good travelling and tactical speed and more importantly the ability to accelerate at the end of the race even if asked to move to gain position at different points during the race. Bad horses do not win top class races at Goodwood.
This race has really improved in recent years this is for one main reason. It was raised to grade 1 level in 1999 to encourage owners to keep older horses in training as fillies had limited chance in Europe unlike America where there is a large program of graded races restricted to fillies (maybe too many).
The winners since then include Lailani (an A P Indy son ran in a graded race in US the other week), Islington, Russian Rhythm, Ouija Board, Peeping Fawn and Midday all those fillies were top class racehorse and were competitive against open company as well.
This being a filly and mares race it is probably best to look at the runners in this year’s race at the 5 day stage to access pedigree.
The sires are Hernando, Platini, Barathea, Danehill Dancer*2, Singspiel, Oasis Dream, Where or When, Sinndar, Rahy, Monsun and Dansili. As you can see every single sire raced in Europe and most were top class race horses except Rahy. The vast majority were also open age grade 1 winners during their racing life another factor that set out top class stallions from the rest Danehill Dancer (dual grade 1 winner at 2), Dansili and Rahy being the exceptions.
It therefore is obvious that to breed top class horse on turf you need a sire that has raced in Europe if breeding on Northern hemisphere time something the sim fails to reflect.
The dam sires are Shirley Heights, General Assembly, Dashing Blade, Rahy, Black Tie Affair, Lion Cavern, Kingmambo, Most Welcome, Linamix, Mr. Prospector, Dashing Balde, and Travelling Victor as you can see a very wide and diverse group some that produce well in the sim others that have zero chance of producing grade 1 horses. What is does show is that the times when half the horse in the race share the same two dam sires is highly unlikely especially not much better than skid turf sires like A P Indy and Awesome Again.
Hernando has never had big crops around 50 a year in real life some of those are bred for national hunt racing as well saying that he has still managed 14 graded winners over the last 7 years. This is a pretty decent average to be honest. He is one of the world’s leading sources of stamina (though not in the sim) this is no surprise as he is a son of Niniski. He should be able to sire a couple of graded winners per year even from the sim crop sizes he gets at present worthy of a sim upgrade. It is worth noting that up to the end of 2008 Hernando had the same percentage of stakes winners to runners as Giant’s Causeway. That probably tells you more about his over rating than Hernando’s underrating.
Barathea now dead he has had a decent run as a broodmare sire of late. This is no surprise as he comes from an excellent female family and has Habitat as a dam sire.
Oasis Dream he is the leading sire in the world in 2010 for grade winners and winning horses. He is one of the best sires in the world right now and has been posting great results from day one. His best books of mares are to come as well. He needs a massive sim upgrade unless it was given this year and should be in the top 5 sires in the game at least.
Monsun he is getting old now and is blind but is still an excellent source of high class turf horses that need at least 10f. His sim AWD is way too low in truth. His best crops are to come check out some of his offspring at the Deauville sales this year to get your mouth watering. He is also an excellent outcross and works really well with the world’s leading dam sire Sadler’s Wells. It is worth noting that of Kentucky based sires A P Indy has the highest percentage of stakes runners to foals at 13% Monsun’s is 15% he should therefore be rated at least the equal of A P Indy neither though given crop sizes and sim crop size be capable of getting above 10% stakes winners per crop.
Dansili like Oasis Dream having another great year and sits in third place in the list of graded winners and wins in 2009. He is also the sire of the world’s highest rated horse at present. He like Oasis Dream does not shuttle which makes their achievements even more outstanding. No reason why he is not and should not be in top 5 sires in the game at present and no excuse if he is not next year.
Platini is another German sire that had a very good race record and has been seriously over looked by the sim. He was an open age grad e 1 winner at three so his success comes as no surprise. A root and branch review of German based sires really needs to take place as their real life results stand up to inspection. He should have been able to get around 1 grade winner per year in the sim and a few other stakes horses. His sim rating was not very good to say the least.
Danehill Dancer is an excellent sire that was up graded and rightly so last year. As he gets more of his better runners come on stream two things are becoming apparent. Firstly his percentage of graded stakes winners to runners continues to rise. The second is the average winning distance of his offspring is increasing with more classically bred mares being sent to him.
Singspiel died recently he has been a solid sire over the last 7 years he has had 34 graded winning runners compared to say Awesome Again 23. It is obvious which one is the better sire and yet he is massively inferior in the sim which is wrong. There is no justification as he has been getting decent graded winner over a long period of time. His percentage of stakes horses per foal well outstrips the other second rate sire as well. He is starting to do well as a dame sire as well. He needs upgrading in the sim.
Where Or When has been a really poor sire in real life he is now at a stud producing national hunt horses. In real terms he is a sim skid going forward and probably needs downgrading from his current poor rating.
Sinndar has been not to great at stud so far. His switch to France has seen some improvement in his ability or returns. I think this is down to French breeders breeding for the 3 or 4 year old season of the horse and the fact they do not like sprint racing and let’s be honest who can blame them. It is so boring. He should be able to get a graded stakes winner or two per full crop. He is a massive source of stamina and should make a good broodmare sire as most stallions owned by the Aga Khan do.
Rahy has been doing well of late and is turning into a very good dam sire. 24 winners in the last 7 years as a sire makes his down grading look strange compared against the record of Awesome Again in the sim versus real life. He has 40 graded winners as a dam sire in that period as well. This is top class and he should get an upgraded now really only available in that position. A P Indy has 26 compare the two’s sim rating and you see something very different.
ALONDRA POWER (IRE) GALILEO (IRE) x RAHY x SUMMER SQUALL
This horse’s front end is pure turf top class. Rahy is mentioned above and Galileo is one of only two sires in the world in 2010 so far to have reached double figures with individual graded stakes winners. He is one of the best sires in the world. This horse is very good as well several graded stakes wins over this trip this year backs that up. Overall her speed figures are good, the only negative is her last graded win was followed by a poor run. If she does not follow that trend here she has to have good prospects of making the frame.
MONTANA WELLS (IRE) SADLER'S WELLS x FORTY NINER x NORTHERN DANCER (CAN)
This mare’s sire is the best since his own sire Northern dancer 155 stakes winners to foals backs this up. He was always underrated I the sim compared to a lot of sires he should have been the best and he is now the leading dam sire in the world. Simple fact he is the only broodmare sire to hit double digits in 2010 with 12 graded stakes winners which is 33% more than his nearest challengers. This mare is on the upgraded and won a graded race over 11f recently. Her speed figures are good as well. She has the class for this race my gut instinct though is she may want further. In the sim 10f to 11f can make a massive difference to a lot of horses. She therefore ahs the ability to make the frame but due to trip is not one I can select for betting purposes.
ERENDIRITA (KY) BERNARDINI x CAT THIEF x LIT DE JUSTICE
I t will be interesting to see how this horses sire does at the upcoming sales. His forst runners on the track are not so exciting but there is still time yet. For fans of breeding check out the Arqana and Fasig Tipton websites. There new style catalogues and online searches etc are top class. This horse on breeding should not be in the race she does not pass the quality test of at least one of her parents having run outside the USA. Her form in what is a hot race leaves a lot to be desired. She is not a bad horse by any means her form and ability shows us this but up to running in a hot grade 1 race not really. It would be a major shock if she made the frame.
CAPITAL KINDNESS (KY) NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN x SHADEED
I always said this horse’s sire would not make the grade and guess what he has been a total bust. He has one horse that has made the frame so far in graded races. He is not going to get any better mares they are going to get worse and the chances of him improving are very remote. He might do ok as a jump sire somewhere but as a flat sire he is now well and truly just above a skid. A massive sim downgrade is required of around 90% of his ability which in truth is where it should have been to start with. The back end of this pedigree is nice though. This is a good horse with a decent record. She runs good speed figures and does not seem to have many bad runs. She must be a joy to own. As for this race I think that she is better short of 10f and although she is a very good graded runner you feel she is vulnerable and it will be a surprise to see her win.
IMTALKINJUNGLEDEEP (JPN) DEEP IMPACT (JPN) x A.P. INDY x FAPPIANO
It is interesting to note the major breeding sales in the USA last year saw a lot of investment from Japan. It was amazing how many of the top lot’s were sold there. This is good for Japan and what is good for them is not good for the USA. Expect to see many more horses from Japan with well known dams turning up on the triple crown trail in 5 years time or so. It would be no surprise to see a horse bred in Japan in the frame in one within the next 10 years. The sim is obviously ahead of time with regards to this. This is a very good mare as well. She ran flat last time which is a good thing in terms of getting the bad run out of the way. She could well bounce back to form today and at her best she can win. The issue is the trip the evidence suggests over 10f is better. I would be looking out for this mare to back come Yorkshire Oaks time.
TARA (IRE) GENEROUS (IRE) x GALILEO (IRE) x WARNING (GB)
This mare’s sire is now a dud. He is though still a good dam sire in fact his grade 1 producing mare is less than 10 miles away from where I am sat now. He has three graded winners in this role in 2010 which is very good. This horse has been good but not won many races. I wrote her off when she ran in December and she ran very well that day her form since has been to a decent level but appears to be short of what is required to win. She should run a decent race but her chances of winning appear not great.
GHOST WHISPERS (KY) GONE WEST x SADLER'S WELLS x RED RANSOM
This mars sire has always been better for what his sons do at stud and for that matter his daughters. He really need two rating one as a sire one as a dam sire. As a sire not so god as a dam sire very good. In Europe he is now the main way into Mr. Prospector his son Zamindar has been covering some very health and high quality books over the past couple of season and might well be in line for a n upgrade once those offspring hit the track which seems strange for a multiple classic producing sire. This is a decent mare and overall her record is good with decent speed figure to match. She has the ability to run in the frame here as well her few runs at 10f seem to suggest she like s the trip far more than the shorter ones most of her races have been at. She can make the frame.
GRIP TIGHT (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II (CAN)
This horse has a pedigree that say stop class or useless. There is a lot of mental issues here all sires throw offspring where temper can get the better of ability not always a good mix. This mare is now starting to get the hang of open age racing which is good news. She has a lot of ability as well. In her last start she won a graded race over this trip in a good speed figure. She may well be one of those horses that improve in the second half of the year. It is not so obvious to detect trends like that since wear and tear became an issue. When I first played the game there were horses that did better at certain times of year than others. Thing is it takes a couple of years to work these things out. If she does not bounce from her last start and is a time of year horse she can be a major factor in this race.
KEVORKIAN (KY) FUSAICHI PEGASUS x NORTHERN DANCER (CAN) x BUCKFINDER
This horses sire ahs really fallen off the face of the earth. It is a tribute to Coolmores marketing department they could still charge $15,000 for him this year. His only graded runner so far in 2010 was a grade 3 winner in Peru! That is a long way short of the world’s leading sire of graded dirt winners by number of horses Water Poet interestingly he was the top sire in 2009 and his star filly last year has not raced this year. He carries on his trade in South America as well. This is a very good horse even though pedigree was it is hard to believe Northern Dancer really is a non entity as a dam sire now. The speed figures and form of this mare stand up to inspection. She sets a very good bench marker in this race. She should run very well and hitting the frame and maybe better will be no surprise.
PADDLE STEAMER (ENG) GREEN DESERT x MISWAKI x UNFUWAIN
This horse’s sire covered a grand total of 7 mares in 2010 he along with Kingmambo are two sire’s in the game doing this at present. The question is should sires like this be available to use. My personal view is not but if I was Mike’s pocket talking I would say yes. This is another decent mare that usually shows her form. She has a good set of speed figures as well. Her schedule has been reasonable hard for a 4yo mare though. She does like this trip and it seems to suit well and has won graded races over this trip. She has never won in open age company so has to break that duck here. I think she will run well and can make the frame but I have a feeling there will be one or two better
A WARRIORS QUEEN (KY) BERNARDINI x DYNAFORMER x NORTHERN DANCER (CAN)
It is amazing this sire given his own sire’s record and his race record can get two horses in a top class turf race. The bloodlines were exposed with the poor stallion Mineshaft and there is no real excuse for this horse to be so good on turf. I would expect to see at least one Danehiil Dancer in this field rather than two by this sire and the horses pedigree fails the quality test. This filly is on the upgrade as well which is good for her chances here. A progressive profile is always a bonus this time of year. She has to step up again to e in the frame here. She likes the trip and given recent speed figures if she does not bounce could well achieve that goal.
As for my selections
1 A Warriors Queen taken to continue upward curve 2 Kevorkian good mare should run well 3 Ghost Whispers goes well at trip
