4393.7807
Race : Fivestarnick Handicap - Grade II - $150,000
Track : Upper New York
Restrictions : All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance : A mile and one sixteenth on the Turf
We have a fantastic grass contest with a field of nine entered for this, the Grade 2 Fivestarnick Handicap in Upper New York. With the Breeders Bowl only about three months away, a win here and those Breeders Bowl dreams start to become a reality while a poor effort can really set back a horses' career. The Fivestarnick is a great opportunity for owners and trainers to really gauge their stock and plan the rest of the year. Lets take a look at the field:
Starting from the rail from the Bush League Stables is GOING WEST. A 4yo son of Gone West, GOING WEST has finished first or second in fourteen of twenty seven lifetime starts for earnings of just under $400k. This Grade 3 winning colt is coming off a dominating performance in which he drew off by 2 1/2 lengths in the listed "New Storm Challenge". GOING WEST has primarily run his best races at 1 1/8 miles which may be a slight concern here as he has not been at his best in his two tries at today's distance, also of concern is his two failed tries over this turf course. He was given a huge speed figure of 110 for his win last out and looks to be entering the contest in real nice form. GOING WEST should be expected to be sitting near the lead until the real running starts. At that point we will find out if our concerns are proven correct or if current form moves forward. We will label him as a solid contender if able to produce his best.
From post position two is Deelynette's 5yo horse, COZZANE HILL. A stakes winning and Grade 3 placed son of Cozzene, COZZANE HILL has earned just over $300k from his record of 6-6-5 from 33 career starts. He has not been in the best form recently as he has shown very little in his last two starts both at this Grade 2 level. He matched his career best speed figure of 107 three starts back when a fine late running second in the Grade 3 "Jennifer Connley BC Turf". COZZANE HILL has been running at slightly longer and cuts back for this but he has won two of three starts at this 1 1/16 mile distance. He has won over this turf course once in two tries which is another positive. He has run on the lead and he has come from tenth so he has a good tactical running style and it would be hard to guess where he will be in the early going. If able to produce a career best effort, COZZANE HILL may be able to crack the top three but it seems highly unlikely with his current form. He may need to take a drop in class to produce his best.
Next in line is our morning line favorite, SILENT AND SMOOTH. Going postward for Wilmington Parliaments LLC, this multiple Grade 3 winning, 6yo son of Shamardal is coming off a very impressive win in the Grade 3 "Aught Conn Cup" in which he earned a monstrous speed figure of 116 for the effort. This was his ninth time running a speed figure of 110+ and this was his best overall. SILENT AND SMOOTH has earned over $660k with his twenty exacta finishes in twenty nine trips to post including thirteen wins. He has been super at this very distance by winning six of nine tries and has never run over this track. SILENT AND SMOOTH has a ton of early speed but does not need the lead to win. He would be comfortable sitting behind a rival or two if someone else wants to do the early running. The biggest concern may be the possibility of the dreaded "bounce" off such a giant effort. He is also coming off a freshening of just over two months and has only run three times this year. He may not be set for a peak effort in this spot, owever SILENT AND SMOOTH is still a serious contender for win honors even with a slightly off effort.
From post position four is Phantom Pharms, HIDDEN GROOM. This regally bred, 4yo son of Storm Cat, HIDDEN GROOM has won nine of twenty four strats for earnings of about $240k. He earned his only stakes win two races back when dominating the listed "Burnt Dealer Special" but had his win streak snapped in the Grade 2 "United Invitational" last out when he tired late to be fourth. HIDDEN GROOM has big time speed and while he may not need the lead, anyone will be hard pressed to take it from him. He has a fine 2-2-0 record from just four starts at the distance. One big question mark will be how he handles this track. He was third in his only try here but it was a very bad third as it was his only try in his last nine races to run under a 100 speed figure, it was a 91 and a poor loss as the odds on choice. HIDDEN GROOM has a life high speed figure of 113 and a couple of 105's leading up to this which may be a sign of improvent. If he handles the track better than he did previously, HIDDEN GROOM could be very dangerous here.
The longest shot in the field, HIGH BALLS will be breaking from post position five. This allowance winning 5yo son of Savabeel and racing for tapered stables, HIGH BALLS has earned over $200k in his 43 race career to date. He is in career best form as he has two wins and a second in his last three races and the trainer decided to take a shot back into stakes company. That did not work last year around this time as he lost two stakes tries pretty handily. HIGH BALLS has handled this distance well compiling a record of 2-2-3 from 10 tries, he also has a career best speed figure of 109 which would be good enough to compete here if able to dig it out. He ran very poorly in his only try over the track which is a big concern and is taking on a tougher field than he has ever faced which makes the task of winning this a daunting one. HIGH BALLS is deservedly the longest shot in the field.
Next in line from Skunkbarn stables is SKUNKMAMBO SLEW. This regally bred 4yo son of Kingmambo has earned over half a million dollars in his twenty two race career which includes six wins. He is a grade 2 winner by virtue of his win in the "Cherry Limb Stakes" in October and has a couple of very nice placings in Grade 2 company in his last two races. SKUNKMAMBO SLEW has yet to beat older horses and has lost seven races in a row but he has been getting better and closer to ending that streak. He made a big move in the "United Invitational" last out before flattening out late and actually finished just in front of one of today's rivals in that race. He matched his career high speed figure of 108 and looks to be ready to finally move forward. He has not yet run at this distance and is cutting back slightly and he has not yet run over this track. SKUNKMAMBO SLEW will be rating right behind what looks like a live pace and should get first run on the closers. SKUNKMAMBO SLEW looks very live here and is my choice to pull the upset.
In post seven comes the second choice on the morning line, from the Otto Haack stable, his namesake, OTTO HAACK. A very lightly eaced 6yo son of Seeking The Gold, OTTO HAACK has amassed $2.5 million in career earnings by winning ten of twenty eight starts including Grade 1's "The Sour Meatball" and "The Woody Ford" both last year. While he has just one win from five starts this year and that was an Allowance contest last out, he also finished a strong third in the "Sand Castle Fee Duty". OTTO HAACK has broken the 110 speed figure barrier a remarkable ten times but has been below 100 his last two. He has a record of 2-0-1 from four starts at the distance and won the Grade 2 "Bernie baruch" over this track in his only start here. OTTO HAACK is clearly the class of the field and is a confirmed closer in a field loaded with speed. He is definitely one of the top contenders in the field but I am a bit concerned that he came back from Dubai in less than perfect form.
Loading next, from the eight hole, is Zeco stables entrant RAFAEL DE LAGO. A 4yo son on Encosta De Lago, RAFAEL DE LAGO comes in winning one third of his twenty one career starts for earnings of $283k. RAFAEL DE LAGO was very precocious as he was a multiple stakes winning 2yo sprinter but never has been able to keep form since. He has been brilliant at times and his best speed figure of 113 came in his only try at today's distance. RAFAEL DE LAGO is stepping way up here off of a very nice Allowance sprint win but I am not sure he is ready for this kind. His last five stakes tries have been subpar and he will need to run better to produce a top five effort. A positive is his running style, he is a late runner and maybe a lot of the speed will come back to him. I do not rate him as a contender for win honors but a minor award is not completely out of the question.
And rounding out the field is BOOM BOX TED from the Teefarms stable. BOOM BOX TED has won with six of his thirty starts for earnings just over $140k. A stakes placed 4yo colt by the sire Take Me Out, BOOM BOX TED has been placed here after his dominating N2X Allowance win last out in which he ran a 113 speed figure. He has won his only start over this turf course, which was at this distance back in November, albeit in a Starter Allowance. This field is much tougher than he has ever faced but the good thing is, he does not know that. He has done his best running on or near the lead and that will probably not work well for him today with all the other speed types lined up. If BOOM BOX TED is able to repeat his performance from last out then he will be competitive, if not he has no shot.
I will go with SKUNKMAMBO SLEW for the win, OTTO HAACK closing fast for second and COZZANE HILL passing tired rivals rounding out the trifecta.
