Jul 122019

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  Though “race” is a generous term for what we witnessed last week.  Then again, when 8 of the 9 horses in that race prefer to come from midpack or further back, even rocket-powered horses wouldn’t have been able to catch the lone speed.  That lone speed was Yankee Storm King ($8.20), who set a ridiculously slow pace for the 7f race and wasn’t even slightly challenged.  He quickly found himself 4 lengths in front, and opened up as far as 6-1/2 lengths.  Entering the stretch, he was still 6 lengths in front, and he easily cruised to a geared down 1-1/2 length victory, earning a 79 SP.  Intoishe, Data Kiss, and the remainder of the closers never stood a chance in this race.  But Intoishe showed some talent as well, closing well late and finishing 2nd, just 1-1/2 behind the lone speed.  Data Kiss moved with Intoishe but was the slightly slower horse and finished 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths back.  On the plus side, the lone speed angle makes handicapping that type of race easier, and I hit the top 2.

This week, the Future Stars Series heads to the Windy City where 12 2yo colts will try their luck at their longest distance to date; 7.5 furlongs on the dirt.  The field for the Illinois race is:

#1 – First Picked (Schoolyard Dreams x Stony Creek Freak [Shamardal x Beat Hollow (GB)]) – Owned by hawkes – 16/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,100

Capsule: First Picked made his debut back on April 13 in a 6f MSW in Kentucky, and he pulled off a bit of a shocker.  Going off at 24/1, First Picked looked like he had no interest early, ahead of only 1 horse, but he began to get a little more focused as the race went on and as he did, he continued to pick off horses, eventually getting up to the front and taking the victory by ½ length with a 68 SP (beating a field that has seen 3 others go on to win races).  His second start wasn’t quite as good, as he stretched out to 6.5f when trying NW2L company for the first time and he again broke last, but could only get as close as 3rd, earning a 63 SP for the effort.  First Picked is the 5th foal from 12yo mare Stony Creek Freak, and is by Schoolyard Dreams.  Stony Creek Freak only won 2 of her 28 career races, both in dirt routes, but earned a Stakes Placed badge thanks to a perfect placement by her owner, as her only stakes attempt was an 8.5f dirt run in start number 5, where she finished 12 lengths behind the winner but because it was only a 4 horse field, she was able to run 3rd.  Most of her foals have taken after her, with just 2 wins (1 allowance win) and mostly coming in dirt routes, but one, Gippsland Goddess (Zann) is stakes placed at 9.5f on the turf (though most of her races came in dirt routes).  Schoolyard Dreams ($2,000) was a multiple graded stakes winning dirt miler in his racing career.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,112 overall, with 11 winners from 21 runners.  He has not had any stakes winners yet in the sim, though he does have one G3-placed horse at 8.5f on the dirt.  Most of his sim foals, however, are dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints), with a sim AWD of 6.44.  First Picked (DI: 0.89, CD: 0.06) will hope to be the first horse picked today and should like the extra distance today, but this ground may still be too short for him.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Mo Pyjamas (Uncle Mo x Fur Pyjamas [Elusive Quality x Ghostzapper]) – Owned by tc1 – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,780

Capsule: Mo Pyjamas may be spelled the British way, but his first two impressive races both came in North America.  In his debut on March 31 in British Columbia, Mo Pyjamas went off as the 4/1 second choice in a 6f MSW and dueled on the front end early but ended up about 1 length off the pacesetters, and then fought gamely to the wire but was ultimately passed and finished 3rd, ½ length back and earning a 73 SP.  But he learned a lot from that race, and came back in Kentucky in May in a 6f MSW and walloped the competition, getting out to the lead and never looking back, opening up 2 lengths before gearing down and settling for a 1-1/4 length victory, earning a 72 SP.  Mo Pyjamas is the first foal from stakes winning 6yo mare Fur Pyjamas, who was sent to Uncle Mo to produce this colt.  Fur Pyjamas won 7 of her 32 career races, all on the turf, with the big victory coming in a 9f stakes where she battled for the lead early, opened up big late, and then held on at the wire, which is something that Mo Pyjamas will look to do here.  While Fur Pyjamas may have been a turfer, Mo Pyjamas has gotten some dirt abilities from his sire, Uncle Mo.  Uncle Mo ($125,000), the #13 ranked US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-8.5f and has been a top real world sire for years.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #10 overall, with 129 winners from 185 runners to date.  7 of those have won stakes races, but only 1 thus far has earned a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals strongly prefer the dirt (75% of earnings on dirt), though there is a pretty even split between sprints and routes (51% of earnings in routes, with a 7.37 sim AWD), which is a little surprising given Uncle Mo’s real world preference for routers (7.38 AWD; note that US AWDs are typically lower because of the prevalence of sprints).  The Uncle Mo x Elusive Quality combo has not produced any stakes winners in the past 5 years, but of the 9 runners, 7 are winners (5 allowance winners) and 2 are stakes-placed thus far.Mo  Pyjamas (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.63) will stretch out a decent amount here, and there’s a bit of a concern that based on his previous races he might tire at this distance, but the bloodlines are there to carry him this far and he’s got a solid chance here.

Watch Level: High

#3 – I’ll Bet First (First Samurai x I’ll Bet That [Machiavellian x Blushing Flame]) – Owned by okieslew – 19/1

Race Record: 9:1-2-3; $57,745

Capsule: The most experienced, and possibly the most overworked, horse in this field, I’ll Bet First has been running roughly every 2 weeks since his maiden victory at 4.5f on the dirt in career race #5.  There, he sat midpack early in the field of 7 but put together a move late and got up by ½ length, earning a 67 SP.  Since then, he has tried various distances ranging from 4.5-6.5f on the dirt at the NW1x and NW2L level, never embarrassing himself but having the benefit of short fields to put together a record of 4:0-2-1.  The fastest of those races was the longest, at 6.5f, where he sat last early but started moving late, finishing 3rd of 4 and earning a 70 SP.  I’ll Bet First is the son of First Samurai ($15,000), the #69 ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, First Samurai’s 2018 crop currently ranks #335 overall (his lowest ranking in a long time), with 30 winners from 41 runners.  None of those have yet achieved stakes success.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters, with 66% of earnings on dirt and 64% in sprints and a 7.34 sim AWD, which also lines up with his real world AWD of 6.86.  I’ll Be First is the 13th foal from 19yo mare I’ll Bet That, a winner of 7 of her 37 career races.  She was primarily a dirt sprinter in her career, and picked up a 3rd place run in a 7.5f dirt stakes effort among her races.  She has passed down some quality to her foals as well, as 3 of her foals are stakes winners, including G2-winning Ultra Fantasy (Gio Ponti), winner of The Stanford-G2 at 6f in 2018 (one other stakes winner was a turf sprinter, while the other was a dirt miler).  In general, her foals have been sprinters, though it’s a mix of turf and dirt for them.  I’ll Bet First (DI: 2.14; CD: 0.68) may like stretching out to this distance, but he has raced a lot this year and he might need a breather before he’s able to show a jump from his previous runs.

Watch Level: Low

#4 – And He Rested (Creator x Iwillbevindicated [Bernardini x Broken Vow]) – Owned by wfstables3 – 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: And He Rested put together a very strong debut back on April 5.  In that race, a 6.5f dirt MSW in Texas, he took on a field of 11 and stalked the pace early before assuming the lead late and pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a strong 77 SP as the 5/1 second choice.  Unfortunately, And He Rested saw a major regression in his second and most recent race, where he broke towards the back and stayed there, finishing 10th of 11 and earning a much lower 63 SP.  There has to be some worry that And He Rested (DI: 4.33; CD: 0.81) was a first race fluke, but we’ll see after this race which of his first two runs was more representative of where this horse will end up.  And He Rested is the son of Creator, and is the first foal from 10yo mare Iwillbevindicated.  Creator (2MM Yen), winner of the 2016 Belmont Stakes, entered stud in Japan in 2017, so he has not had any real foals hit the track yet.  In the sim, Creator’s 2018 crop currently ranks #167 overall, with 50 winners out of 89 runners to date.  Among those is 1 residency stakes winner at 8.5f on the dirt as well as a multiple G1-placed filly, Bode Girl, who was 3rd in the Bluegrass Oaks-G1 (9f) and 2nd in the Sister Hen Stakes-G1 (9f).  Creator’s sim foals have taken after him thus far as dirt routers, with 84% of earnings coming on the dirt and 58% on routes (the route number is likely to increase as a larger percentage of his sim foals run in routes).  And He Rested is the only one of the 3 foals by Creator out of a Bernardini mare that has won a race thus far (though collectively, the 3 foals only have 7 starts).  Iwillbevindicated was never much of a runner, winning only 1 of her 10 career races (that win coming in an 8.5f dirt route), so she is hoping to be vindicated by And He Rested here.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Satellite of Hate (More Smoke x Seattle Break [Sunday Break x Seattle Sleet]) – Owned by guru13 – 48/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $31,372

Capsule: It’s interesting to see Satellite of Hate as the longshot in this field, because his 2 races to date were decent runs, and it seems like he has a better shot than some of the other competitors in this field.  In his debut on May 2, he clearly showed he wanted more than the 4.5f of that race, as he broke last in the field of 12 early but passed a number of horses late, finishing 5th, just 2 lengths back, and earning a 63 SP while going off at 122/1.  So he stretched out for his 2nd race in June to 6.5f and even though the oddsmakers sent him off at 22/1, he showed that he was happier with the added distance, as he sat towards the back early and then moved late, breaking his maiden by 1 length and earning a 68 SP.  Satellite of Hate is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Seattle Break, and is by bargain sire More Smoke.  More Smoke, the #27 ranked Pennsylvania sire in 2018, was a G3-winning dirt sprinter on the track.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,553 overall, as it only includes 3 runners and 1 winner thus far.  Standing at stud since 2002, he only has 94 total sim runners, 2 of which have won stakes races (1 local).  His sim foals are typically sprinters (65% of earnings in sprints), as evidenced by his sim AWD of 7.26, and somewhat surprisingly his foals have been a little more successful on turf than dirt (52% of earnings and 62% of wins on turf). Seattle Break won 3 of her 19 career starts, all in dirt sprints, but those wins all came in the claiming ranks. Her first two foals have followed in that same basic trajectory, each winning multiple races (one in dirt routes, one in dirt sprints), but all in claimers.  Satellite of Hate (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.80) will try to buck that trend and become the first of his generation’s foals to become an allowance winner here at a distance that seems like it would suit him.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Kris Shingle (Mohaymen x Mo City Song [Uncle Mo x Carson City]) – Owned by saratogaspa – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $49,770

Capsule: Kris Shingle might sound like what happens when Santa Claus becomes a lawyer, but he’s shown more speed than Santa would on the track thus far in his career.  Debuting at 5f on the dirt on January 10, Kris Shingle stalked the pace early and came running late, but just missed, finishing 2nd by a  head and earning a 70 SP.  So it was no surprise that he came back in March at 6f and had no trouble dusting his competition, battling for the lead early and quickly assuming it, never looking back and winning by 1 length with a 75 SP.  From there, Kris Shingle made the jump to stakes company and ran evenly throughout, finishing 5th, and he gets the class relief of today’s race coming out of that stakes effort. Kris Shingle is a son of Mohaymen, and is the 2nd foal from 6yo mare Mo City Song.  Mohaymen ($7,500), a multiple G2 winner at 8-9f on the dirt, entered stud in 2018 so he does not yet have real foals.  His freshman sim crop of 2018, however, currently ranks #129 overall, with 76 runners and 41 winners to date.  Among the winners are 2 stakes winners, one who has rattled off 5 thus far (and 4 in a row) in the 5-5.5f dirt range, and one who has hit the jackpot at 6.5f on both turf and dirt.  His sim foals have shown a preference for dirt thus far (75% of earnings on dirt), and they have had a sizeable preference for sprinting (81% in sprints), though it’s possible that could change once he has more route runners.  Mo City Song, meanwhile, was a 6 time winner in 24 career starts, including a stakes win at 11f on the dirt.  Like that stakes win, most of her best races came in the 11-12f dirt range.  Her first sim foal, Mo City Bern (Bernardini), hasn’t been quite as good, with only 1 win in 9 career starts, but he’s shown some promise at longer distance races recently. Kris Shingle (DI: 6.00; CD: 1.00) drops back down to the NW2L level today from stakes company to try to take his next step forward, and although the bloodlines suggest that today’s distance may be pushing his limits, the mare side of his line has the needed stamina to get today’s distance.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – We Say Not Today (Medaglia D’Oro x Mr. Prospector x Unbridled) – Owned by given6 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $21,231

Capsule: The sponsor of the race, We Say Not Today had a solid debut back on May 5 when he sat last in a field of 7 early, falling almost 7 lengths back in the 6.5f MSW, but came with a big move late and managed to finish 4th, just 1 length behind the winner, earning a 70 SP.  He took a step forward in his most recent race on June 9, where he again tried a field of 7 but this time 1-1/4 length closer, and so when he unleashed his stretch run, he was able to get up in time and win by ¾ lengths, earning a 75 SP.  We Say Not Today is a scratch bred son of Medaglia D’Oro, out of a Mr. Prospector mare.  That combination has been potent in the sim, as of the 39 Medaglia D’Oro x Mr. Prospector foals in the past 5 years, 32 have won at least 1 race, with 7 of those finding stakes victories and one being a multiple G1-winning dirt router at 9f.  Medaglia D’Oro ($200,000) generally has the #22 ranked 3yo sim crop, and he was the #12 ranked real world US sire in 2018.  His sim crop includes 100 winners out of 158 runners, 9 of which have won stakes races (2 graded stakes winners).  Among those is Barbara Bites Back, winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1. Medaglia D’Oro’s sim foals have a strong preference for routing (70% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 7.69 AWD and 8.28 sim AWD, and they have a slight favoritism towards dirt (61% on dirt).  We Say Not Today (DI: 4.00; CD: 0.98) will try to say “yes today” as he stretches out to 7.5f, which he DI and CD suggest might be too long for him, but which the other sim foals suggest will be right up his alley.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – West of Neverland (No Nay Never x Gone West x War Chant) – Owned by stepsutt67 – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $36,720

Capsule: West of Neverland had a huge debut back on April 6, as he took on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky and bolted out of the gate, setting pace and never letting anyone get within 1 length of him, winning by 1 with a very strong 79 SP (the 2nd place horse from that race is 2 for 2 since).  That run was good enough to send West of Neverland to stakes company, and he held his own at that level.  Setting the pace again at 6.5f, he held the lead for a long time but was run down late and finished 4th, beaten 3-1/4 lengths but earning a 75 SP.  He’ll make the class drop today as he tries to stretch out a little further.  Stretching out to 7.5f is an interesting move for this son of No Nay Never ($100,000, who was  a turf sprinter and the #85 ranked EU sire in 2018.   In the sim, No Nay Never currently has the #7 ranked 2019 sim crop with 40 winners from 86 runners to date.  This slightly outpaces his 2018 crop’s current ranking of #25, though that crop is doing a little better with 8 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners to date.   No Nay Never’s sim foals are heavy sprinters (75% of earnings in sprints), which is in line with his sim AWD of 6.6 and his real AWD of 6.16, and they show a slight turf preference (59% on turf).  The No Nay Never x Gone West cross has only been used 1 other time in the past 5 years, and although that horse in an 8 time winner, those wins are mostly in turf sprints.  The uncommon cross isn’t much of a surprise, as Gone West in the DS spot makes West of Neverland a 4×2 inbreeding, which isn’t a particularly common strategy.  West of Neverland (DI: 3.40; CD: 0.77) was bred for pure speed, and he has shown it in his 2 races thus far, but it does beg the question as to whether 7.5f might be too far for him – we’ll find out today.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Gormless West (Gormley x Ecumenopolis [Gone West x Blushing Groom]) – Owned by planobrgn3 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Capsule: Gormless West is the least experienced horse in the field, with only 1 career race thus far, and that 1 race was a hot race.  Back on March 27, owner planobrgn dropped 7 of his 2yos in a hot MSW at 6f on the New Jersey dirt, and it was Gormless West who came away victorious, sitting midpack early and then coming on late to win by ¾ lengths with a 64 SP as the 7/2 second choice.  Each of the horses he beat in that race came back to run at the MCL level and none won their next races (though one has broken her maiden in a $3K MCL), but Gormless West was given over 3 months off and returns to the track today to see if he can compete with real competition.  Gormless West is a son of Gormley, and is the 7th foal from 12yo mare Ecumenopolis.  Gormley ($10,000), who entered stud in 2018, was a multiple G1-winning dirt router.  In the sim, his first crop in 2018 currently ranks ##176 overall, with 45 winners from 76 runners to date.  As of yet, none of his sim foals have achieved a stakes victory, though one is a multiple stakes-placed dirt sprinter.  His foals have had a dirt preference thus far (72% of earnings on dirt), and although it’s still early to tell distances, it looks like his initial crop has had a slight preference for sprinting (71% of earnings are in sprints, but 25% of his sprint runners have won, versus only 19% in routes).  Ecumenopolis was a very profitable mare, winning 14 of 42 career races and earning over $325K in her career.  She was a router all the way, with the large majority of those wins, plus 2 stakes placings, coming in turf routes in the 9-10.5f range.  Her first foal, Cosmopolis (Galileo (IRE)), fits that mold as well, as she was a 3-time stakes winner, all in turf routes as well.  But while most of her other foals have been routers, there has been a split between dirt and turf runners.  Gormley has been bred to a Gone West mare 1 other time, with that horse having earned allowance wins in both dirt sprints and dirt routes thus far.  Gormless West (DI: 2.76; CD: 0.75) has the bloodlines for today’s 7.5f distance, but it’s a big jump from restricted hot company to open competition at the NW2L level, so he will need to take a step forward today.

Watch Level: Medium

#10 – Speight Spirit (Speightster x Spirit of Speyside [Bernardini x Awesome Again]) – Owned by slicker – 23/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-0; $17,298

Capsule: Speight Spirit got his career off to an inauspicious start back on February 16, when he tried a 6f MSW but trailed the entire way and never passed a horse (though that debut was a solid field, with the winner being the current #1 ranked 2yo dirt colt, Carsons Way, and the 2nd place horse being stakes placed).  After that poor effort, he was dropped into the auction and picked up by slicker, and after another dull start at 5f, he tried a 4.5f MSW against a field of 5 and finally did something on the track, sitting midpack early and then taking over the lead late, winning by ½ length and earning a 57 SP.  His most recent race, facing winners for the first time in a NW1x allowance at 5.5f, may have been Speight Spirit’s most impressive race yet, where he ran 4th but earned a career high 67 SP, sitting last early but picking off some tiring horses and finishing only 4 lengths off of the winner.  Speight Spirit is the 2nd foal of 6yo mare Spirit of Speyside, and is by a son of Speightstown in Speightster. Spirit of Speyside was a reliable runner in her career, winning 7 of her 24 career races, 6 of them at the allowance level.  All 7 wins came on the dirt, with 4 coming in dirt routes of the 8-8.5f variety, where she spent most of her career.  Her first foal, 3yo Track The Pack, only raced twice before retiring, never racing longer than 4.5f or finishing better than 4th.  Speightster ($10,000) was a G3 winner at 8f on the dirt, adding some distance to the Speightstown line, and entered stud in 2017.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #405 overall, with 28 winners from 52 runners to date.  None of the horses from his 3yo crop have found stakes success yet, but he does have 2 stakes winners from his 58 runner first crop, one winning at 7f and one at 9f, both on the dirt.  That’s unsurprising, as his sim foals have largely preferred dirt (82% of earnings on dirt), and the bulk have been sprinters (76% of earnings in sprints, 6.68 sim AWD).  The Speightster x Bernardini cross has been used to limited effect thus far in the sim, as of the 4 runners, 3 are winners but none has earned an allowance victory yet.  Speight Spirit (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.63) isn’t as sprint-bred as one would initial expect, and the 7.5f distance might suit him well, but it’s gonna take a massive improvement off of his previous performances to get the job done today.

Watch Level: Low

#11 – Poetic Silence (Heaven’s Glory x Newbar Sea [All American x Our Poetic Prince]) – Owned by canadiana – 26/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $29,200

Capsule: Poetic Silence has spent his career thus far on the turf, so he’ll try dirt for the first time today.  A solid 4th place finish in his debut at 5.5f on February 16 prompted the repeat turf performance, which resulted in a front-end win at 5.5f-T, earning a career high 68 SP.  Poetic Silence’s most recent race saw him stretch out to 6.5f-T, where he fought on the front end early but tired late, finishing 5th of 6 in a NW2L allowance.  Poetic Silence is by Heaven’s Glory, and is the 4th foal from 9yo mare Newbar Sea.  Heaven’s Glory ($2,500), a son of Tapit, was unraced due to a training injury but after standing his first season in Maryland in 2017, he was transferred to California in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #340 overall, and has a somewhat surprising (considering the current 18 BP cost) 52 runners, of which 22 have won.  His sim foals have shown a slight preference for the turf overall (55% of earnings on turf), and they have largely been sprinters (70% in sprints with a 6.51 sim AWD).  Newbar Sea was a 8-time winner in 32 career races, all in turf sprints, with her best performance coming when she won a 6.5f turf stakes race as a 3yo (she was most dominant at that age, winning her first 4 career races and 6 of her first 10).  Her first foal, 5yo New Aussiezeal (He’s Remarkable) inherited some of her mother’s talent, as she was a multiple stakes placed turf sprinter as well, but neither of her other foals have produced much on the track as of yet. Poetic Silence’s (DI: 2.11, CD: 0.43) breeding suggests that he might like stretching out a bit, but he’ll need to take to the main track a little better than he took to the turf in order to prove that he can handle the distance.

Watch Level: Low

#12 – Tarton Squirt (Mr Speaker x Squirter CB [El Corredor x Lammtarra] – Owned by tarton12 – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $41,310

Capsule: The only gelding in the field, Tarton Squirt began his career on the good dirt in Florida at 6.5f on April 12 and pulled off a huge upset at 21/1.  Sitting midpack early, he came flying late and in the blink of an eye he had passed the leaders, drawing off to win by 1-1/2 lengths and earning a 70 SP.  He caught a 5-horse field in his second race, a 6.5f NW2L in March, and he fell way off the lone speed early in that race, but again came flying late and ended up in a 3-way photo that ultimately went to the pacesetter, but Tarton Squirt’s run was good enough for 2nd and earning a career-high (and field-high) 82 SP.  Of note, the horse he beat in that 3-way photo came back to run 3rd, with a 75 SP, in a 7f dirt allowance next time out.  Tarton Squirt is the 7th foal from 18yo mare Squirter CB, and is by the sire Mr Speaker.  Mr Speaker ($10,000), a G1-winning turf router, is seeing his first foals hit the real track in 2019 and he is currently the #25 ranked first crop US sire.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #166 overall, with 41 winners from 85 runners to date.  Of those, 2 are stakes winners, one at a turf mile and one in a dirt sprint.  Mr Speaker’s sim foals have thus far been primarily dirt sprinters (61% of earnings on dirt, 71% in sprints) and his sim AWD is 6.84, which is a bit of a surprise, given his on-track abilities.  Squirter CB was primarily a dirt router in her career, with most of her races coming in the 8-8.5f range, and she retired with 3 wins (2 allowance wins) in 15 career races.  3 of her foals are non-hot, non-local allowance winners, but 2 of those are stakes placed and one, Moon Squirter (Liaison), is a stakes winning dirt miler.  Most of her foals are dirt runners, with the best doing their damage in dirt miles.  Tarton Squirt (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.65) has the bloodlines to get today’s distance, and through 2 races the oddsmakers have been severely underestimating him, so this may be your last chance to get decent odds on this gelding before the betting public catches on.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for this NW2L Illinois allowance.  I don’t have a good feeling about my picks this week, but I’m going to go with (1) West of Neverland, (2) Tarton Squirt, and (3) We Say Not Today.  But if you’ve got some extra cash, 48/1 is a ridiculous price on Satellite of Hate, who may not be the best in the field, but is almost certainly not the worst (though I guess we’ll see how he does).

Lastly, a programming note – The Future Stars Series will be off for the next couple of weeks.  But we’ll be back!  And also, I’ve got an unrelated special statistical project that I’m working on and hope to be writing up for the BTB soon, if I can figure out how to properly present the data. Good luck everyone!

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      Louisiana – Alw NW2L @ 6f

2)      Louisiana – Alw NW3L @ 6f

3)      New York – Allowance @ 7f

4)      New Jersey – Alw NW3L @ 6.5f

5)      New York – Allowance @ 7f

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  4 Responses to “Future Stars Series – 12 NW2L Colts Battle Over 7.5 furlongs on the Illinois Dirt”

  1. Great race summary and analysis! Thanks!

  2. Very nice write up! Hoping to see improvement and continued development for MO Pyjamas!!!

  3. Nice article as always. Hope I can get to the boards the boards.

  4. You’ve tipped my runner two weeks in a row, you were right last week, hoping the streak continues!